The Miami Heat are tied for second in the East and primarily due to the strength of their defense, which is currently second in the NBA, in terms of points allowed.
Most contenders reach their potential by pairing a top-ten offense with a top-ten defense and Miami falls just a hair outside that criteria right now, as they have the 12th best offense in the league.
But this team is just scratching the surface. Duncan Robinson is shooting the lowest 3-point percentage he’s put up since his rookie year, averaging just under 34 percent from long-range.
He’s up to nine attempts per game, right where he should be to maximize the pressure he puts on defenses. If he can get his percentage back up to 40 percent though, that may be all it takes to vault this team’s offense into the league’s elite.
And a sweet shooter like Duncan won’t stay in a slump for long. Miami’s middle of the pack offense scores about two points per game less than Portland, who has the fifth-best offense in the league this season.
If Robinson can hit the percentage he hit last season (41 percent), the Heat could contend with Portland’s offense based on that improvement alone. And if Duncan can hit 45 percent of his threes, as he did two seasons ago, the Heat could be tossing in almost 112 points per game.
That, easily, catapults them into the top-five offenses in the league. This doesn’t even account for the way a red-hot Duncan Robinson would bend defenses, allowing Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, and Kyle Lowry to wreak havoc on the rim.
Everything needs to click for a team like Miami to bring home the Larry O’Brien trophy in June. Jimmy Butler is doing a little of everything and could find himself in rarefied air, with only minor improvements.
Tyler Herro is putting up nearly 22 points per game. Adebayo is destroying the paint…. on most nights.
Lowry is a top-ten assist man this year. And those four are meshing.
Robinson’s shooting is the final piece. And when that returns to the norm, the Heat may have a top-five offense to go along with their top-five defense.
The rest of the league will need to contend with them, not the other way around. We noted how this team still had so much room to improve, that it’s scary and that starts with their three-pointing shooting.
Their shooting, though, starts with Duncan Robinson. So, when he finds it again, because he will, they instantly become one the top-four most feared teams in the league… immediately.
