Gov. Ron DeSantis famously said he was “standing in the way” of the President … and one metric shows that Florida’s Governor is indeed standing in the way of Joe Biden’s re-election.
DeSantis on Friday moved past the incumbent in a prediction market tracking the 2024 election.
On the PredictIt platform, DeSantis’ “Yes” shares are priced at 25 cents, with Biden a penny behind at 24 cents.
DeSantis had tied Biden on previous days, but hadn’t surpassed him.
Despite taking a lead over the current President, DeSantis is still in second place with investors.
“Yes” shares for former President Donald Trump are priced at 29 cents.
Trump, DeSantis, and Biden dominate most of the investment action. “Yes” shares for Vice President Kamala Harris are priced at 10 cents, while those for Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg are priced at six cents.
Just as DeSantis is running second overall, he is also in runner-up status among those PredictIt prognosticators investing in the potential outcome of the 2024 Republican Primary. Trump “Yes” shares are valued at 38 cents, a full nine cents above the DeSantis equivalent.
No other Republican eclipsed 8 cents, so the race for the nomination is still regarded as a two-person race.
Polls generally have shown Trump ahead in a field including him and a field of contenders including DeSantis. But DeSantis has been the consistent frontrunner in fields without the former President.
More granular polls, including a hypothetical head-to-head matchup between Trump and DeSantis in a 2024 Florida Primary, show the Governor ahead narrowly.
Though public polls are of keen interest, observers of the conservative movement have their eyes on Orlando and this weekend’s straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Conference.
In 2021, DeSantis was second-best to Trump in the straw poll. Trump was the choice of 55%, and DeSantis 21%, if both men were running. But without Trump in the field, DeSantis was the choice of 43%, with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem far behind at 11%.
This time around, it’s possible DeSantis may be more competitive with Trump.
If so, we may see more positive movement in the coming days for the Governor in prediction markets, public polls, and other early metrics of a still-embryonic 2024 race for the presidency.
