As South Florida braces for another day of spotty showers because of a tropical wave that is in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, forecasters are also watching a tropical depression in the Atlantic that is forecast to strengthen into Tropical Storm Gonzalo sometime Wednesday.
The system, Tropical Depression Seven, is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph and is about 1,285 miles east of the Southern Windward Islands, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 5 a.m. Wednesday advisory.
The “small” depression has maximum sustained winds near 35 mph with higher gusts and is expected to see some additional strengthening in the next few days as it picks up speed, according to the hurricane center.
It is forecast to strengthen into Tropical Storm Gonzalo sometime Wednesday and is expected to move toward the Windward Islands this weekend. The system is currently not a threat to Florida.
While the depression has “become a little better organized this morning” and its “very likely that we will have Gonzalo over the tropical Atlantic very soon,” forecasters with the National Hurricane Center say its intensity forecast has “more than the usual degree of uncertainty.”
“Although the cyclone is likely to remain in an environment of fairly low shear, the influences of dry air and large-scale subsidence could inhibit strengthening in a few days … It should also be noted that the small size of this system makes it susceptible to significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward and downward,” wrote NHC Forecaster Pasch in the 5 a.m. discussion.
Forecasters say those with interest in the southern Windward Islands should continue to monitor the progress of the system.
TROPICAL WAVE IN GULF OF MEXICO BRINGING SHOWERS TO SOUTH FLORIDA, FORECASTERS SAY
The National Hurricane Center is also watching the tropical wave in the Gulf of Mexico that is continuing to produce a “large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, southern Florida, and western Cuba.”
“You still need your umbrella today! We are waking up with spotty showers & throughout the day passing storms will be possible due to moisture associated with a Tropical Wave located in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Breezy at times with gusts up to 25 mph. High:88,” Miami Herald news partner CBS4 Meteorologist Lissette Gonzalez wrote on Twitter Wednesday.
It has a “low” 30 percent chance of forming into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours and a “medium” 40 percent chance of formation in the next five days, according to the hurricane center.
The disturbance is expected to move over the central Gulf sometime Wednesday and, and reach the northwestern Gulf, near the Texas coast, by Thursday or Friday.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later Wednesday, if necessary. The previous reconnaissance mission that was scheduled for Tuesday afternoon was canceled.
